The present paper provides a literature review of studies examining the potential causes and consequences of recent surges in\r\nfood and agricultural commodity prices. Furthermore, this paper uses the structural trend methodology proposed by Koopman\r\net al. (2009) to analyze movements in the IMF monthly commodity food price index for the period 1992(11)ââ?¬â??2012(10) and to\r\nprovide forecasts for the period 2012(11)ââ?¬â??2014(12). The empirical results indicate that commodity food prices present seasonality\r\nand cyclicality with the longest periodicity of two years.The empirical findings identify certain structural breaks in commodity food\r\nprice series aswell as outliers. These structural breaks seem to capture the trend component of the price serieswell,while the outliers\r\ntake account of temporal effects, that is, short-lived spikes. Finally, the presented forecasts show high and volatile commodity food\r\nprices.
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